FEEDBACK - Finding Ecological and socio-Economic system Dependencies in Biodiversity conservation and AgriCultural land use for the management of Key system drivers

Prof. Dr. Johannes Sauer

Tipping points occur in both ecological and the socio-economic systems, and the dynamics of these systems may be linked, such that management of tipping points requires a joint analysis of the combined socio-ecological system. This proposal aims to contribute to a better management and prevention of tipping points, by using a modelling approach that is both guided and tested with data from model regions. We will set up coupled socio-economic, ecological and agricultural models, to understand the conditions under which tipping points in ecological and socio-economic systems are causally linked. The output of the socio-economic models, in particular land-use allocation, will be the input for the agricultural and ecological model. Conversely, the output of these models, in particular biodiversity, yield and ecosystem services, will serve as input for the socio-economic models. Modelling will be guided by scenarios including global change drivers such as climate change but also market shocks or the rural exodus. Our project will focus on tipping points at the landscape scale in the range of 100–1000 square km, to include a mechanistic understanding of land-use decisions. We identified a number of candidate model regions, in Europe, Africa and South America. Scenario development, model set-up, and the test of the modelling using empirical data will be carried out together with stakeholders. The preliminary phase of the project will be used to review the knowledge on coupled tipping points in the socio-ecological system, to develop the modelling framework, and to select model regions for the main phase. In the main phase of the project modelling and empirical tests will be carried out. Model outcomes will be translated into suggestions for management strategies in cooperation with stakeholders.

The duration of the project proposal is 12 month in cooperation with the chairgroups Weisser, Kollmann, Rammig, and Knoke.